On September 28th, the Belarussian citizens are going to cast their ballots for the parliamentary elections. Whether this will have any effect on the outcome of the vote is of course always doubtful in the 'last dictatorship of Europe'. At previous elections, hopes for some democratic progress have always been shattered by obvious and widespread vote-rigging and unequal opportunities for rivals of the governing clique, not just at the election day but particularly so in the run-up to the elections. Judged in terms of media neutrality, registration of opposition candidates or the inclusion of representatives of the opposition in the electoral commission, the upcoming election does not seem to become any improvement at all.

Nevertheless, at least superficially, some things do seem to have changed recently. Quite remarkable was the sudden release of former Presidential candidate Alexander Kazulin, as well as that of two other political prisoners that had been imprisoned on political grounds. Also, a shift has been observed in the attitude of the regime of President Lukashenka vis-a-vis the West. When speaking at the European Parliament last week while representing a signifant amount of democratic forces in Belarus, Mr. Kazulin believed that these were signs that the current government "is tired of being at war with enemies it itself had helped to create".

There are also other explanations to be given. With Mr. Kazulin's release in August, his chances of staging a convincing campaign for the elections were already very low. In addition, with an opposition that is unfortunately still not sufficiently united, throwing Mr. Kazulin into the arena might actually result in a more chaotic situation. A different rationale was given by the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies in a report titled 'The Game with Risen Stakes: Official Minsk's Quest for Legitimization in the Context of the Geopolitical Mess in the Region'. They argue that the Belarusian's warming up to the West could also be partly the result of the growing tension between the West and Belarus' political friend, the Kremlin, "nudging Russia towards more lenient deals on energy price issues by threatening with 'normalization' of relations with the West".

Either way, whether the Belarusian prefers West over East, the other way around, or neither, it should first and foremost start respecting the basic and universal principles of freedom and democracy. In that respect, the release of political prisoners means nothing if the elections in which they are supposed to play a role remain rigged.