The elections to the parliament (to the National Coucil, the lower House; and in most Cantons also to the State Council which is the Upper House; the parliament is perfectly bicameral, both chambers have exactly the same powers)[1] showed gains for the conservative right as well as for the greens. The liberals lost some seats in the National Council.
Results for the State Council are in several Cantons pending since many require an absolute majority for those seats in the first round; the second, run-up (simple majority) will follow on November 25, 2007.
The Young Liberals of Switzerland (jungfreisinnige schweiz jfs) celebrate the outcome with extraordinary joy: the jfs was able with Christian Wasserfallen (Berne, 26 years old) to get elected a third representative to the National Council (on the lists of the FDP). The jfs is now represented with Christa Markwalder, Isabelle Moret and its newest MP, Christian Wasserfallen.
In the recent elections to the federal parliament, the national conservatives gained again some additional seats, as did the Greens. The liberal parties lost some seats and continued their trend downwards. Remarkable is that the Christian Democrats succeeded in turning around their loosing streak and gained a bit. The most dramatic shift occurred to the Socialdemocrats who lost almost 4% in voter stake.
The results in brief for the National Council (200 seats):
SVP (People's Party, national conservatives): 62 (gained 7), voter stake: 29% (+2.2%)
SP (Socialemocrats): 43 (-9), 19.5% (-3.8%)
FDP (Liberals): 31 (-5), 15.6% (-1.7%)
CVP (Christian Conservatives) 31 (+3), 14.6% (+0.2%)
Greens 20 (+6), 9.6% (+2.2%)
Others: 13 (-2), 11.7% (+0.8)
The SVP scored the highest result for a single party since 1919 (when the Free Democrats had to share more of their seats after the elections and a changed constitution after the WWI). Given the changes in the amount of seats of the parties, the elections epitomize a moderate shift to the political right, with a strengthened green on the far left.[2]
Historically, Swiss politics has been dominated by the four biggest parties (FDP, CVP, SP, SVP) since WWII, which led to the famous "magic formula" of the composition of the 7-seated federal government (FDP 2, CVP 2, SP 2, SVP 1) from 1959 to 2003. The electoral victory of the SVP in the last 16 years changed the composition of the government into a new formula after the last federal elections in 2003 (now: FDP 2, SP 2, SVP 2, CVP 1), where the CVP as the weakest of the four biggest parties was forced to abandon one of their former two seats in the Federal Council (the government). Since then, the Swiss politics does still function as a consociational, consensus-prone political system aiming at broad-based solutions and policies, but the federal government has become seemingly more involved/intermingled into party politics and a personalization of the political debate.
However, trends in the last eight years weakened the political center as a whole (FDP and CVP) and favored political polarization (i.e. gains for the left and the right). The outcome of the 2007 elections may lead to a structurally more fundamental change in the political left, strengthening the Greens (at the expense of the Socialdemocrats), as there has been an increasing importance of environmental issues in the last five years.
The election outcome 2007 could reveal an underlying trend to an emerging 5-party system, consisting of the Greens, the Socialdemocrats, the Christian Conservatives, the Liberals and the National Conservatives. As for now, it seems highly unlikely that this will lead to a change in the composition of the government which will be elected in mid-December 2007. As it is Swiss customs, there is almost never a "voting out" of a current member of the government (the once of a person of the CVP in 2003 was one of the very few exception). So, changes in the federal government are made usually when one or several ministers (there is no Prime Minister in Switzerland!) step down. The Greens (or in general, the political left) is too weak to demand a third "left" seat in the federal government.
Given the electoral changes in other countries, the shifts in electoral strengths of parties in Switzerland are usually very small and the system is known for its stability. However, changes in the elections 2003 and 2007 are somewhat bigger than "normal", even though they cannot be referred to as a "landslide"-change.
Liberal losses, but jfs success
Across the board, the liberals (mainly referred to here as the FDP, since the LPS is very small and almost exclusively represented in the French-speaking part of the country) have lost seats and continued their steady decline since the early 1980s, where they had a voter stake of roughly 25%.[3] However, the Young Liberals of Switzerland – the jungfreisinnige schweiz jfs – are highly satisfied to have won a third seat on the National Council.
Christa Markwalder-Bär, the first jfs-MP after a long break, was elected in 2003 on the list of the FDP. Isabelle Moret became an MP during the last legislature (2003-2007) as a FDP-MP resigned. Now, Christian Wasserfallen, who is just 26 years old and already MP in the city parliament of the capital Berne, got elected on the list of the mother party FDP and ranked 4th on the list. Pending the outcome of some second-round/run-up elections to the State Council (the Federal Parliament's Upper House) there might even be more jfs-representatives gaining a seat in the National Council (since some major MP's run for both chambers).
The jfs run for office with 18 lists in 15 different Cantons (i.e. Constituencies, out of 26) with more than 180 own, young candidates. The jfs reached a voter stake of up to 5.7% in some Cantons and contributed to securing some seats of the mother party (due to the so-called list-linkaging).
Election Campaigns and Issues
Estimates indicate roughly an overall amount spent on campaigning to be 50m Swiss Francs (42m US$, 30m Euro). There have been more than 3100 candidate competing for the 246 seats (200 in the National Council and 46 in the State Council).
The important pending political issues, such as welfare and pension fund reform, increasing competitiveness of the domestic economy and as well as reforming education have been effectively sidetracked by controversies about the resignation of the federal prosecutor (and clashes with the Justice Department led by SVP-Minister Blocher) as well as a controversial black-sheep nationalist[4] campaign by the SVP which even led to some international attention (and unfortunate distortion and exaggeration). This year's campaigns were considered by many as weak in terms of content, and more focused on persons as well as (overly) emotional topics.
The Young Liberals fought their campaign under the umbrella term of intergenerational equity (Generationengerechtigkeit, in German), emphasizing the need of reforms to make the policies sustainable and payable also for future generations, With the intergenerational equity the jfs campaigned largely with three policy issues, namely social policy (the need to reform the health insurance, welfare an pension fund sector), education&business (improve education to regain position at the top of international rankings as well as simplifying regulations to boost entrepreneurialism) and resources (financially: reduce the public debt and reshape the tax code as well as ecologically: preserve the environment for future generations).
This years campaign drew heavily on internet resources, targeted mails, movies[5], as well as the regular street campaigning.
Outlook and Comment
The parliament will convene in its new shape in December 2007. In the meantime discussions about tactics for the elections of the federal government (elected together by both chambers in mid-December), a.o. about the controversial SVP-Minister Blocher. However, changes in the current personal composition of the government seem highly unlikely and the discussions are mostly a media opportunity.
From a liberal perspective, the new parliament – pending the remaining elections for some State Council seats – is hopeful to address more vigorously reform in the welfare/pension funds area as the current system (as it is the case in many European countries) will soon plunge into heavy debts due to changing demographics and ever growing demands. Additionally, policy adjustment are needed to boost competitiveness (e.g. through the fast adoption of the Cassis-de-Dijon principle, i.e. the recognition of all EU-products without additional checks) and increase trade openness (i.e. reducing tariffs and other protectionist instruments, mainly in the agricultural sector). However, the latter issue (trade) will still be controversial, as there are many farmers represented in the parliament and the SVP is traditionally a protector of farming interests (so it is likely that the slow, but steady progress as outlined in the Agricultural Policy 2011 will continue).
The new parliament is also likely to remain steadfast in the EU-Swiss Tax regulation dispute (the EU accuses Switzerland to give some corporations trade-distorting tax advantages, even though such allegations are considered to be baseless from a legal perspective), which is to be highly welcomed from a liberal, economic view. Most probably both sides, the EU and Switzerland, will agree on a middle ground.
Tough will be the future path in Swiss Foreign Policy towards the EU and its expansion. In 2009 there will be most likely a blockbuster popular vote on the Swiss extension of the free movement of persons to the new EU-member states Romania and Bulgaria (which is hugely controversial). A negative outcome would likely lead to strains and countermeasures on behalf of the EU.
While it is deplorable that the liberals again have lost seats in federal elections, it is to some extent relieving that the Socialdemocrats incurred much bigger losses. The new parliament has the potential to adopt sound liberal reforms, but first we need to await the completion of the State Council and emerging cooperational mechanisms among those elected.
For further inquiry:
Adrian Ineichen, International Officer and Member of the National Board of the jfs
0065 9094 3075 (cell phone, currently in Singapore), adrian.i@gmx.ch
|
|
SVP |
SP |
FDP |
CVP |
Green |
LPS |
GLP |
EVP |
others |
Seats |
|
AG |
6 |
3 |
2 |
3 (+1) |
1 |
|
|
0 (-1) |
|
15 |
|
AI |
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
AR |
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
BE |
10 (+2) |
6 (-2) |
4 |
1 |
3 (+1) |
|
|
1 |
1 EDU, 0 SD (-1) |
26 |
|
BL |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
7 |
|
BS |
1 |
2 (-1) |
1 |
|
1 (+1) |
|
|
|
|
5 |
|
FR |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
1 CSP |
7 |
|
GE |
2 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
2 (+1) |
2 |
|
|
0 Sol (-1) |
11 |
|
GL |
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
GR |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
5 |
|
JU |
1 (+1) |
1 |
|
0 (-1) |
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
|
LU |
3 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
10 |
|
NE |
1 |
1 (-1) |
1 |
|
1 |
1 (+1) |
|
|
|